Will Solar Panel Prices Fall in the Future?

Over the past two decades solar panel prices have indeed fallen sharply, and according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) the decline continued in 2023. Nobody can reliably predict how much cheaper they will get in the coming years – so instead of waiting, a household is better off weighing how much of the electricity it produces it can use itself.

What did our 2022 article say?

Our article of April 2022 was based on an English-language compilation by The Zen Universe, built on US market data. Its main claims in brief:

• System price per watt: the price of a solar system was on average around USD 11 per watt in 2000, around USD 6 in 2010 and roughly USD 1.70 in 2022. The source also gave a price of USD 120,000 for a 60 kW system – this does not match the per-watt figure exactly, so it should be treated only as an order of magnitude.
• Incentives: the upfront cost can be reduced by close to 30% with subsidies – this applied to the US environment of the source and cannot be transferred to local conditions.
• Soft costs: according to the source, the more expensive part of a system is not the panel itself but the installation, permits and other ancillary items ("soft costs"), which have fallen more slowly.
• Battery: for many the most expensive component, its price then ranged between USD 5,000 and 8,000, although it has become 80% cheaper since the 2000s.
• Forecast: because of competition and innovation the source expected further price falls and advised not to wait, because you keep paying the electricity bill while waiting.

What we would write differently today

• A later paragraph of the article mentioned prices of USD 0.5 or even 0.3 per watt. This contradicts the USD 1.70 system price above; the source does not clarify what it refers to, so we do not use it.
• The old text said that a household stores surplus electricity in a battery and energy companies buy it. This is inaccurate: the surplus typically goes straight from production into the grid, while a home battery mainly serves self-consumption.
• We do not repeat the monthly electricity bill example given in dollars, because it was based on US tariffs.

What has happened to prices since?

According to the IEA's 2022 report on the solar manufacturing supply chain, the cost of solar panels fell by more than 80% over the past decade, largely thanks to the ramp-up of Chinese manufacturing. According to the 2023 renewable energy report, the spot market price of solar modules fell by nearly 50% within a year in 2023, while manufacturing capacity grew to three times its 2021 level.

These are global module prices. The price of a household system also includes the inverter, the mounting structure, installation, permitting and possibly a battery, so the fall in module prices shows up in the end-user price only in part. We therefore do not quote a specific local price or forecast: an investment decision needs a current quote for your own roof.

Is it worth waiting for solar panels?

The question of the 2022 article should be put differently today. Besides the panel price, it is at least as important how much of the electricity produced the house uses: for new systems, electricity fed into the grid and electricity drawn are now settled separately. Our related articles cover the details of this and the price forecasts of the time:

• Solar panels make sense not only in summer – on winter production and gross metering;
• They said solar panels wouldn't get cheaper – an earlier price forecast and today's panel output;
• Solar panel prices are falling, yet adoption is not spreading enough – an earlier compilation of market and capacity data;
• Home energy storage – when a battery helps.

If you plan solar panels together with electric heating, it is worth starting from winter demand when sizing; our article on heating with solar panels covers this. You can read about planning solar panels and heating together on our solar page.