Solar Panel Prices Are Falling, Yet Adoption Lags

The 2015 news item described a contradiction: solar panel prices had halved in five years, yet less new solar capacity was being built in Europe each year than in the peak year of 2011. Below we briefly summarise what the news item reported and point out which of its figures should be treated with caution today if you are considering a solar investment.

What did the news item report in May 2015?

MTI, the Hungarian news agency, based its report of 24 May 2015 on data from High Six Team Kft., a company that designs and installs solar systems. The main points:

• Prices. The price of panels is measured per watt, relative to the output delivered at peak irradiation. At the time of the news, top-quality products cost roughly EUR 1 per watt, and cheaper ones already 40 cents.
• Europe. 22 gigawatts of solar capacity were installed in 2011, 17 in 2012 and 11 in 2013, and according to preliminary figures a similar amount in the previous year. For the period to 2018, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association counted on average growth of 15 gigawatts a year in the optimistic case and around 10 in a realistic one.
• Hungary. 50 megawatts were built in the previous year; for 2015 the handover of one 16 and one 90 megawatt plant was expected, then a temporary decline, and from 2018 as much as 80 megawatts of new capacity a year.
• Production by climate. The news item gave 1,200 kilowatt-hours a year for Hungary, 1,700 for the Mediterranean zone and 2,200 for the tropics.

What should be read differently today?

• Installed output, not square metres. The news item expressed production per square metre of panel, whereas the 1,200 kilowatt-hours for Hungary is a value typical of installed capacity. According to the sizing guide of MVM Optimum, on a south-facing roof with a 35-degree tilt, a 1 kWp system can produce about 1,200 kWh a year, and about 1,150 kWh with a south-east or south-west orientation. One square metre of panel delivers only a part of that.
• Panel output. According to the news item, after the 180-watt panels of 2007, premium panels reached 500 watts, which it described as an amount produced "per hour". A watt is power, not energy per hour, and we could not verify the 500-watt figure for 2015 – today's MVM Optimum guide also works with an average panel of about 400 Wp.
• Prices and forecasts. The prices in euros and the estimates up to 2018 apply to the time of the news; an investment decision needs a current, specific quote.

What is the question for a household today?

What decides today is no longer whether panels are cheap, but when and how the electricity produced is used. Since 1 January 2024, gross metering applies to new household systems in Hungary: electricity fed into the grid and electricity drawn from it are measured and settled separately. The system should therefore be sized to the household's own consumption pattern – with electric heating, including the winter demand, when solar panels produce the least.

Our solar page covers planning solar panels and electric heating together. See also our article on solar panels in winter for winter production, They Said Solar Panels Wouldn't Get Cheaper for the price forecasts of the time, and Will Solar Panel Prices Fall in the Future? for how prices have developed.