Why Do I Think a Heat Pump Is a Scam? Busting a Myth

No, a heat pump is not a scam: it is an efficient technology that produces the same heat with less electricity. The pointed question in the title actually answers a myth – that in a well-insulated new house, heating directly with electricity is always expensive. In early 2024 we calculated for a 100 m², A+ house what infrared heating with solar panels costs compared with a heat pump; we present that calculation here, with its assumptions.

Infrared heating is often set against heat pump systems. When choosing, homeowners weigh the initial investment, operating efficiency, sustainability and comfort. For a long time the general opinion was that heating with electricity is expensive and a heat pump is the best decision. For a new house with low heat demand, however, it is worth looking at the numbers. You will find a comparison made at today's prices and with other assumptions in our cost comparison of heat pumps and infrared heating.

Starting data of the early-2024 calculation

The example is a property with an area of 100 m² and A+ rating, being built at the time. The prices show our estimate of February 2024; the current price we give in a quote.

Investment cost

• Infrared heating: the whole installation for 100 m² was about HUF 1.6–1.8 million.
• Heat pump: according to our early-2024 estimate it could be as much as HUF 8–10 million. To this comes the space requirement of the mechanical equipment: if the equipment occupies 2 m² of usable floor area, calculating with a construction cost of HUF 1 million/m², this means a further HUF 2 million in value.

Operation and maintenance

• Infrared heating warms parts of the living space in a targeted way by radiation, so there is less unnecessary energy use. The expected annual heating energy demand of the example house is about 2,600 kWh.
• A heat pump is energy-efficient: its consumption can be as little as 1/4 of that of infrared heating. In the calculation, however, we also counted annual maintenance and mandatory servicing, the cost of which in early 2024 could be as much as HUF 100,000.

With these assumptions the annual running costs of the two systems came close to each other. A heat pump is a complex mechanical system, repairs and parts replacement must be expected during its life, whereas heating film has no moving parts.

In the investment costs there was a nearly 4-fold difference in the calculation. How long it takes for the difference in running costs of a few tens of thousands of forints a year to pay this back depends on the investment and energy prices at any given time, so for every house it is worth recalculating the payback with its own data.

What is infrared heating, and why do solar panels come up alongside it?

Infrared heating warms the space with infrared radiation. Heating-film-based systems are simple to install, save space, and because they do not heat by circulating air, they stir up less dust. They can be built into the floor, ceiling and wall, and the floor and air temperature can be controlled separately room by room.

Solar panels produce electricity directly from the Sun, so they reduce dependence on the grid and energy costs. Installing a 10 kWp system cost about HUF 3.5 million in early 2024, and it can produce a significant part of the electricity a household uses. The pairing of infrared heating and solar panels is therefore interesting for those who want to reduce the running cost and ecological footprint of the home at the same time.

The calculation step by step

Distributing the heating demand over the months

We distributed the annual heating demand of 2,600 kWh over the heating season with assumed monthly weights. The weights are hypothetical: they estimate the relative coldness of each month.

Real consumption also depends on the site, the quality of insulation, the efficiency of the heating system and usage habits.

The production of the solar panels

To estimate production we used the following average monthly sunshine hours. These are assumptions of the calculation, not an official series of measurements.

To cover the coldest month in full, a system far larger than 10 kWp would be needed, which would however produce unneeded surplus in most months. Sized to the annual energy demand of the heating, the 10 kWp system proved the best choice: in the coldest months electricity has to be bought, and the summer surplus offsets the winter purchases in money.

The annual balance at February 2024 prices

The calculation was made with prices valid in February 2024: the utility bought surplus electricity produced by the solar panels at HUF 5 at the time, and electricity bought from the grid cost HUF 37. Settled monthly with these unit prices, there was a payable amount from October to February and income from March to September, and at the end of the year HUF 5,800 remained payable.

Settlement rules have kept changing since, so the result of the calculation cannot be taken over unchanged today. For new household solar systems, gross metering has applied in Hungary since 1 January 2024: the monthly electricity drawn and fed in are read and settled separately. Net metering remained only for those who submitted the connection request by September 2023 and commission the system by 1 January 2026, with the 10-year limit. Both the buy-back and the purchase price may change, so it is worth repeating your own calculation with the current contract prices.

Summary

In the February 2024 calculation, infrared heating and the 10 kWp solar system together (HUF 1.7 million + 3.5 million) were an investment of HUF 5.2 million, nearly half the amount estimated at the time for the heat pump. The annual heating and maintenance cost of infrared heating came to HUF 5,800 with these assumptions, compared with about HUF 100,000 estimated for the heat pump. Summer cooling must be solved separately alongside infrared heating, because it is not suitable for cooling; the cost of this is not included in the calculation. With a heat pump it is worth asking whether the chosen type is also suitable for cooling.

The calculation was made for a single example house, at early-2024 prices and assumptions, and is not a universally valid verdict: in another house, at other prices, a heat pump can also be a good choice. For a comparison for your own house, request a quote for both systems, starting from the same heat demand. The general considerations of electric heating methods are summarised on our electric heating page.

Further considerations with infrared heating

• Radiant heat: radiation warms surfaces and people, not the air, and the heating is not based on moving the air.
• Fast heating up: infrared heating needs no long warm-up time, unlike some other heating systems.
• Simple installation: heating film can be built into new and existing buildings, in as little as 1 day, with little intervention in the structure and furnishings.
• Zone control: the temperature of rooms can be set independently, so the system consumes only where and when needed.
• Durability: heating film has no moving parts. We give a 15.5-year warranty on 4th-generation heating film if we do the installation (in Hungary).
• Hidden installation: the heating elements are under the floor, in the wall or in the ceiling and do not disturb the look of the home or office.